From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@datamann.com)
Date: Sun May 19 2002 - 17:10:02 MDT
"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" wrote:
>
> Personally, I think that if Moore's Law stays on track until 2012, that
> should be more than enough. Failing that, and failing a shift away from the
> current semiconductor paradigm, I would expect Moore's Law to shift to
> putting more and more processors on a chip, making chips three-dimensional,
> and putting more and more chips inside a box. That seems like plenty of
> room to carry matters forward until 2030, and I'll be *really* surprised if
> anything beyond that is needed.
This 2012 window is on the current silocon/copper materials. Switching
to GaAs and gold, for example, will give another boost, and the
switchover to photonic chips that will begin around 2005 should be in
full swing by then.
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