Re: Vinge's Fast Times

From: Eugen Leitl (eugen@leitl.org)
Date: Fri Apr 26 2002 - 00:18:23 MDT


On Thu, 25 Apr 2002, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:

> By the decade Vinge is talking about, late 2020s CRNS (Current Rate No
> Singularity, a measure of linear time), I would expect wearable
> computer interfaces to have evolved far beyond the level they occupy
> today, into an extended sensorimotor modality. This being the case,

So something which interfaces overwhelmingly unidirectionally (eye
tracking, gesture and voice recognition, EEG pickup have a lousy data
rate) via your visual and auditory system makes you smarter? Nice trick,
that.

> the younger kids are likely to be better adapted to the most recent
> technology because they began using it while they had maximum neural
> plasticity. A fifth-grader beating an experienced adult with a

Massively invasive systems, yes. However, I don't see invasive systems
hitting the street in 20 years. For the same reasons they don't implant
microelectrode arrays in people today: cost, risk, inconvenience, lousy
performance. This will only change with the advent of medical
nanotechnology of the machine-phase variety, which looks arbitrarily far
removed from the current point of view.

> keyboard is one thing, although it does happen nowadays; it is far
> easier to visualize a fifth-grader beating an experienced adult with a
> wearable-computing interface that has advanced to and beyond the level
> of a Segway Ginger.

Augmented reality allows you to do some stuff humans simply can't do
(enhancement of sensorics, mapping of new modi into existing senorics,
total documentation track, remembrance agent, telepresence, canned
knowledge cuing behaviour), including increased performance in specific
tasks (like, say, industrial and military automation control), but it
doesn't actually make you smarter in the degree as envisioned by Vinge.
You wouldn't actually do much better on a standard IQ test (unless you're
cheating using your remembrance agent).

To be fair to Vinge, his headbands are not huds, and they're invasive (in
functionality, the depiction is innocuous (no skin portals, no massive
implants)).



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