From: Amara Graps (Amara.Graps@mpi-hd.mpg.de)
Date: Mon Apr 08 2002 - 08:33:09 MDT
Robert J. Bradbury:
>On Sun, 7 Apr 2002, Adrian Tymes wrote:
>> I was unaware of any proof that the nuclear winter proposition had been
>> found deficient.
>I believe that subsequent studies of Sagan's atmospheric model, rates
>of dust clearance, etc. were found insufficient. [As a group we really
>out to put together a page on this, related to "risks humanity
>faces"].
Carl Sagan was not the originator of the nuclear winter hypothesis.
The study, first referred to as TTAP: Authors: Turco, R.P., Toon, O.B.,
Ackerman, A., Pollack, J.B. (deceased). Sagan was added later, based
on his experience of Mars dust in the Martian atmosphere, and because
of his prominence as a public spokesman, so then: "TTAPS".
The TTAPS study wasn't the most sophisticated model of atmospheric
physics, but it was a good start.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Title: Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple
nuclear explosions
Authors: Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.;
Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.
Journal: Science, vol. 222, p. 1283-1292 (1983).
Publication Date: 12/1983
Origin: AP
Bibliographic Code: 1983Sci...222.1283T
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Title: Nuclear Winter to BE Taken Seriously
Authors: Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.;
Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.; Maddox, J.
Journal: NATURE V.311, NO.5984, P. 307, 1984
Publication Date: 09/1984
Origin: KNUDSEN
Bibliographic Code: 1984Natur.311..307T
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTAPS was not 'debunked', nor did the authors retract their
hypothesis. That 'debunking' seems to be the stuff of urban legend,
perhaps because some people wanted to discredit Carl Sagan. What
followed the TTAPS study was simply more sophisticated models that
still supported the original study, but gave more details for the
atmospheric phenomena (so my atmospheric science friends tell me).
This is called the "TTAPS2" study:
Title: Climate and Smoke - an Appraisal of Nuclear Winter
Authors: Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.;
Pollack, J. P.; Sagan, C.
Journal: SCIENCE V.247, NO.4939/JAN12, P. 166, 1990
Publication Date: 01/1990
Origin: KNUDSEN
Bibliographic Code: 1990Sci...247..166T
the closing paragraph: "The constellation of physical effects -
attenuation of sunlight, surface cooling, upper-level heating and
stabilization, and enhanced interhemispheric transport - proposed in
the original nuclear winter hypothesis have been reaffirmed through
increasingly sophisticated theoretical and experimental
analyses. Specific physical parameters have undergone substantial
revision, buth these adjustments have been mutually compensating and
have not led to changes exceeding a factor of 2 in ther magnitude of
predicted effects. Although important uncertainties persist and more
work remains to be carried out, the basic physics of nuclear winter
appear firmly established. With regard to the long-term, widepread
consequences of nuclear war, the existing data indicate that, should
substantial urban areas or fuel stocks be exposed to nuclear ignition,
severe environmental anomalies - possibly leading to more human
casualties globally"
See also this summary:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Title: Nuclear Winter: Physics and Physical Mechanisms
Authors: Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.;
Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.
Journal: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol.
19, p.383 (Annual Reviews Homepage</a)
Publication Date: 00/1991
Origin: ADS
Bibliographic Code: 1991AREPS..19..383T
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amara
--
************************************************************************
Amara Graps, PhD | Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik
Heidelberg Cosmic Dust Group | Saupfercheckweg 1
+49-6221-516-543 | 69117 Heidelberg, GERMANY
Amara.Graps@mpi-hd.mpg.de * http://www.mpi-hd.mpg.de/dustgroup/~graps
************************************************************************
"Never fight an inanimate object." - P. J. O'Rourke
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Nov 02 2002 - 09:13:19 MST