From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Thu Mar 28 2002 - 14:55:47 MST
On Thu, 28 Mar 2002, Dan Clemmensen wrote:
> What part of this seems dangerous? I think a human race without SI is
> increasingly dangerous. We've somehow managed to avoid nuclear war
> so far. but nanotech and some forms of biotech look threats that may
> be beyond practical human control.
I disagree. There are plenty of "threats" out there now (asteroids
we are unaware of, 9.0+ earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest,
slumbering volcanoes waiting to blow their top, etc.) that involve
*no* tech and are significantly beyond the "control" abilities
of technology currently available to us. In contrast with biotech
and nanotech I can cite very specific solutions to problems that
one might anticipate could develop.
The sun growing into a red giant and roasting the Earth is a virtual
certainty. Humans dying unless robust technologies are developed
to extend their lifespans is another virtual certainty. Rejecting
the technologies that can solve these problems is simply not an
option (unless one wants to die preserving the status quo).
> The lesson of 9/11 is that society makes increasing power (in the
> physics sense of the word) available for any determined individual
> to use. This will accelerate.
This isn't anything "new" -- compare the destructive power of an
automobile with the destructive power of a horse powered carriage.
It is also important to realize that this isn't *technology*
(e.g. hardware) dependent -- it is in reality *knowledge*
(e.g. software) dependent.
I'm moderately certain that I could evolve formidible bioweapons
using nothing more than access to sufficient people willing to
sacrifice their lives. I could perhaps speed it up a little bit
with such sophisticated technology as a razor blade. (Don't
ask me to explain this further -- its knowledge best left
undiscussed for now. The statement is made to point out that
it isn't the means one should be concerned with but the knowledge
as to how to create the means or the awareness that the means
can in fact be created.)
Ultimately because of trends that Dan mentions it is going to
become very important for people to place a significant emphasis
on defensive technologies (no telling what technologies your
ex-girlfriend or boyfriend has at their disposal) and behave
in ways that promote the survival of others (so as to reduce
the number of people running around with feelings that they've
been cheated out of their fair share of the pie in some way.)
Robert
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