From: Chris Hibbert (chris@pancrit.org)
Date: Sun Mar 24 2002 - 16:46:13 MST
Hal Finney wrote:
> I believe Drexler's Foresight Institute was running some kind of betting
> pool about nanotech, but I couldn't find any information on their web
> site. Does anyone have information on what kinds of dates it predicted?
That market has been discontinued. It ran from Spring of '99 through last
year.
There were three questions based on whether the Feynman Grand Prize would be
won by 2010, 2015, and 2020 respectively. The prices rather stably reflected
a consensus it wouldn't be by 2010 (25 bid, 30 ask), but was likely by 2020
(65/75), and no clear answer on 2015 (40/50).
Chris
-- It is easy to turn an aquarium into fish soup, but not so easy to turn fish soup back into an aquarium. -- Lech Walesa on reverting to a market economy. Chris Hibbert http://discuss.foresight.org/~hibbert chris@pancrit.org
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Nov 02 2002 - 09:13:05 MST