From: Kai Becker (kmb@kai-m-becker.de)
Date: Thu Dec 27 2001 - 15:22:32 MST
First of all: I am sure that you're right about the USA, and I think I am
right about Germany. But my real question is still unanswered - and I
think the answer _is_ important for this list: Even if the USA can only
lower their highest crime rate in the western world when all their citizens
have guns (and I doubt this, because "correlation is not causation"), why
do the other countries have a rate four times lower _without_ this? There
must be other factors than guns, and for me, these are the important
factors.
Am Donnerstag, 27. Dezember 2001 19:29 schrieb Mike Lorrey:
> I have examined this data in the past. I notice that this study examines
> crime rates in large cities of the different countries. This, therefore
> does not accurately impunge legal gun ownership, since most all of the
> large cities in the US greatly restrict gun use by law abiding citizens.
The study provides data for cities _and_ the countries as a whole.
> Note also that the study only has data for West Germany up to 1992, not
> Germany as a whole. East Germany's inclusion from 1992 onward results in
> a boost in crime rates of around 20%, and given that East Germany has
> had far more restrictive gun laws than West Germany, this confirms my
> own assertions.
East and West Germany joined 1990. The overall crime rate, including(!)
"vereinigungsbedingte Kriminalität" (crimes in context of the rejoin) is
not higher than in the eighties.
Year Population No.of crimes Rate
1986 61,047,700 4,367,124 13,98
1987 61,170,500 4,444,108 13,76
1988 61,418,000 4,356,726 14,1
1989 61,989,800 4,358,573 14,22
1990 62,679,000 4,455,333 14,07
1991 65,001,400 4,752,175 13,68
1992 65,765,900 5,209,060 12,63
------------------------------------------
1993 80,974,600 6,750,613 12
1994 81,338,100 6,537,748 12,44
1995 81,538,600 6,668,717 12,23
1996 81,817,500 6,647,598 12,31
1997 82,012,200 6,586,165 12,45
1998 82,057,400 6,456,996 12,71
1999 82,037,000 6,302,316 13,02
The data in http://www.bka.de/pks/pks1999/index2.html shows, that the risk
of homicide in Germany today is still well in the range of comparable
western states, and thus well below the USA. The 20% peak in 1993 gives a
rate of 5.24/100,000, which is only half the rate of the USA in this year.
The weapon laws here are even more strict than before 1990.
And these are numbers for a country with an overall population density like
New York or Chicago.
> Actually, firearms, as technological instruments of individual
> empowerment, are extropic.
Firearms empower to what? To kill. I can't find this extropian. Like the
proverb says: For some one with only a hammer, everything looks like a
nail. Someone who has a gun has no need to think about better alternatives.
Cf. the discussion about no-alternatives situations...
The Rennaissance, by the way, was followed by the 30-year war, which left
Europe devastated, with 6 mio. dead (30% of the population) and the economy
and social structures destroyed.
Kai
-- == Kai M. Becker == kmb@kai-m-becker.de == Bremen, Germany == "Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced"
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Nov 02 2002 - 08:12:52 MST