From: Dossy (dossy@panoptic.com)
Date: Mon Dec 24 2001 - 07:05:17 MST
On 2001.12.23, J. R. Molloy <jr@shasta.com> wrote:
> As a matter of fact, despite that men drive more miles than do females, men
> have fewer accidents per mile driven than do female drivers.
[...]
> For whatever reason, statistics are routinely abused by the media to
> conceal important safety facts. Look at the numbers behind the numbers
> before accepting such myths. Men drive 2 1/2 times as many miles as
> women.
That's because men spend less time on the road, so that makes sense.
The current analysis (measuring probability by miles-to-accidents)
is flawed. Probability ought to be measured as a function of
time-on-the-road to accidents. And, men may drive more miles, but
at a higher speed, and so they spend less actual time on the
road.
The reason why I say measuring probability is only meaningful
as a function of time vs. accidents is because regardless of
your vehicles speed, the odds of getting into an accident
are the same (50/50, or 0.50) -- you either do, or you don't.
So, you really need to break things down into "number of
accidents per unit time" ... and being that even though women
drive fewer miles, I'd bet that a large majority of women drivers
spend their time driving local roads at 25 MPH vs. men who
are commuting (at 55 MPH-65 MPH, or even 75 MPH and up). So,
even if men drive twice the miles of women, 1 hour at 25 MPH
should be compared equally to 1 hour at 50 MPH ... now factor
in for that hour of driving, who has more accidents. Is it
still the women? Or men?
Now, presume that women spend more actual time driving than
men do. Use that to normalize the number of accidents. Who
has a worse driving record now?
> If you want data on men as better drivers, take a look at the names of the
> winners of auto races (which are open to anyone with a qualifying lap
> time).
Are you really this dumb? That's like saying "if you want data on
men as better presidents of the United States, take a look at the
names of the US presidents to date (which is open to any natural
born citizen or citizen of the United States that is 35 years and
has been a resident of the United States for 14 years)."
Or, it's like saying "women make better ballet dancers, if you want
proof just look at the number of successful women ballet dancers
vs. the number of successful men ballet dancers."
Do not mistake coincidence for causation. Really.
-- Dossy
(You know, for a long time, there were many more successful
male computer programmers than females. Did this mean that
males were better programmers than females? I don't think
so.)
--
Dossy Shiobara mail: dossy@panoptic.com
Panoptic Computer Network web: http://www.panoptic.com/
"He realized the fastest way to change is to laugh at your own
folly -- then you can let go and quickly move on." (p. 70)
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