From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Mon Oct 15 2001 - 08:49:00 MDT
Amara Graps wrote,
> Here's something that might be useful to the discussion. I heard a
> Swiss fellow, Olivier Jaquet, present this paper last month:
>
> "Stochastic modelling for time series reconstruction at active volcanoes"
>
> by Olivier Jaquet (Colenco Power Engineering, Baden, Switzerland) and
> Roberto Carniel (Departimento di Georisorse e Territorio, Universita
> di Udine, Udine, Italy)
>
> (It's not published yet.) The idea is to use the statistical
> characteristics of the data to fill in gaps for modelling
> purposes. Note: you are NOT creating *real* data (i.e. the folks who
> need to make predictions based on real data should not use this). But
> I think that this method has a valid use for those folks who can't
> apply a data analysis on their data because of small gaps in the
> time-series, or are trying to show long term dynamics of a system.
> For example, the 'standard' wavelet transforms which determine
> frequencies require as input time series data on an evenly-spaced time
> grid.
Yes, this does apply. The facinating part for me is that we can use
statistical analysis without understanding what causes the data. Even
without being able to predict accurate data, we can detect the range of what
could be. If someone were to provide false data or tampered data for the
missing information, it would be detected as such. This has enormous
implications for detecting hidden messages. We don't have to decode them or
even understand how they work to detect "normal" data and "altered" data.
Some of my greatest achievements (which are proprietary and cannot be
discussed) have involved using information to detect or reveal things, even
when we don't know how the information works. This kind of statistical
analysis can be used on DNA decoding, encryption, storing digital copies of
a brain, etc. We can manipulate and validate information and data
processing functions, even if we don't quite know what we're doing!
-- Harvey Newstrom <www.HarveyNewstrom.com> Principal Security Consultant, Newstaff Inc. <www.Newstaff.com> Board of Directors, Extropy Institute <www.Extropy.org> Cofounder, Pro-Act <www.ProgressAction.org>
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