From: Nathan Woods Currier (nwc@physics.ucsb.edu)
Date: Sun Aug 26 2001 - 21:34:11 MDT
>Well, it's not so much that, as that these issues have been kicked around
>rather a lot here over the years. I suggest anyone who hasn't been to
>Robin
>Hanson's `Great Filter' paper scamper off there quicksmart:
>
>http://hanson.gmu.edu/greatfilter.html
Thanks, Damien, for the Great Filter link. For those who haven't visited
yet: It is a fairly detailed commentary on the problems of aliens
reaching the Singularity, with implications for how difficult it might be
for us to reach it. It is much more thorough than my previous post on
the issue.
A clarification on that previous post: The 1% was a guesstimate of the
probability that the number of true UFO stories is nonzero, not the
probability that they as a group are true. It is obvious that the vast
majority of UFO stories are BS, because this is the sort of meme which
feeds on itself through hoaxers, crazies, and people in need of attention.
As Charlie pointed out, most UFO tales are just modern versions of the
old legends of succubi, incubi, etc. and are therefore suspect. This
makes UFOlogy like searching for probably nonexistent needle a needle in
a very large haystack. However, it is highly unlikely that a true UFO
story would involve genuine aliens, for reasons previously mentioned.
Anyone else out there with a manifesto on a recurring topic? Just so we
newbies don't continuously unearth old threads. I've lurked for a year
without seeing this one- but my sampling has only been 25%, due to lack of
time. Now, time to bury this thread... for a couple months.
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