From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Fri Aug 10 2001 - 08:53:41 MDT
Mike Lorrey wrote,
> Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> > The methodology that observing a person's
> > race will help predict their criminal behavior is wrong.
> Why? If the statistics support it, then it is an entirely valid
> prediction to make, as much as a weather man predicts rain wherever
> there are clouds....
I know this is a hard point to grasp, but it is basic statistics.
Statistical numbers only apply to large normalized groups. They do not
apply to individuals or small groups. A million coin flips will be 50%
heads and 50% tails. We cannot pre-judge a single coin flip, or even a few
coin flips. The statistical numbers do not apply. They cannot support any
assumptions made about any individual.
Your weather man predicts percentages of rain of an area based on
statistical averages for that area. (Even then, weather reports are not
that accurate!) He does not predict for a particular house or person
whether they will get rain. He does not predict for a particular cloud
whether it will rain or not.
Applying group sampling statistics to the group being sampled is valid.
Applying group sampling statistics to any individual is not valid.
> > Is there any good reason to split hairs with these terms,
> except to be able
> > to practice prejudice and discrimination while claiming not to
> be racist?
>
> Yes, there is. If you were following my essays on trust and political
> enfranchisement here in the US, you'd recognize why. I most emphatically
> do NOT say that the probability of committing crime is genetic. To the
> contrary, it is part and parcel of the trust dynamic in society. Those
> we trust least are more likely to breach trust. Part of it is a self
> fulfilling prophesy of expectations about the behavior of those we trust
> least, the rest is generally a self perpetuating attitude of resentment
> in those who are poorly trusted.
So how does this relate to race? Are you saying that one race should be
trusted more or less than another race? If so, this is racist. You might
believe it is scientifically justified by the facts, but it is a belief
systems that non-physical characteristics can be determined by observing a
person's skin color. Prejudice is based on this belief, in that you can
judge a person by race instead of by their individual merit. Discrimination
is based on this prejudice, in that you can make decisions based on a
person's race instead of their individual merit. If you believe you can or
should prejudge and make decisions based on someone's race even without
evaluating them individually, this is racism. Even if it is scientifically
proven to be a good and accurate way to judge people, the concept of judging
people by their race is called racism. We don't seem to be disagreeing on
what you are describing, we just disagree on what label to put to it.
-- Harvey Newstrom <http://HarveyNewstrom.com> <http://Newstaff.com>
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