From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Wed Jul 18 2001 - 07:41:17 MDT
More detail on that DICE-99 model implications. See these:
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/web%20table%20of%20contents%2010
2599.htm
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/web%20chap%207%20102599.pdf
Here are their estimates of the present global value of various policies.
Doing nothing 0 (by definition)
Doing the optimal thing 198B$ (B$ = billion dollars)
Waiting 10yr, then do optimal thing 192B$
Limit global emissions to 1990 levels -3000B$
Limit C02 level to x2 pre-industrial -700B$
Limit delta-temp to 2.5C -2500B$
Geoengineering fixes, if easy +4000B$
Their model doesn't include the benefits of resolving
uncertainty about the model, which would favor waiting.
But the model also doesn't include high variance uncertainty,
which via risk-aversion might lean toward limiting change.
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Nov 02 2002 - 08:08:51 MST