Re: tech miracles of the year 2000 as seen from 1950

From: John Marlow (johnmarlow@gmx.net)
Date: Wed May 16 2001 - 00:35:17 MDT


> I think what is needed is honesty, less bullshit from journalists
and scientists and promoters of this or that. Or if they are
promoters of X or Y, let them state it clearly.

Clearly stated: I'm a promoter of nanotechnology as the solution to
most of our problems and the means to the realization of most or all
of our aspirations.

Clearly stated: I think more likely the damned thing will kill us all-
-so I'm a bit ambivalent about speeding things up.

  :)

And, obviously, there'll be no stopping it, so we might as well face
the beastie and do our best.

I also think it entirely conceivable that a completely nonbiological
consciousness (which is what most seem to be thinking of when they
refer to AI/SI) may be flat-out impossible. "Self-awareness" as
generally discussed in relation to AI/SI is not consciousness.* A
computer which interprets data and makes logical decisions based upon
those data is not displaying consciousness. A computer which passes
the Turing Test is a parlor trick; the test itself is meaningless
because its definition of intelligence is meaningless.

You may well ask for a definition of consciousness.
Well, hey--if you gotta ask...

jm

*Simple example: Computer detects heat which will damage its
components, and eliminates the heat source or moves components away
from it. Another: Computer discovers way to improve its source code
(because it has been programmed to do just this), and does so. This
is "consciousness?" I think not.

Of course, consciousness is not a necessary component of the SkyNet
scenario.

--
On 16 May 2001, at 1:39, Spudboy100@aol.com wrote:
> In a message dated 5/16/2001 12:47:50 AM Eastern Daylight Time, 
> johnmarlow@gmx.net writes:
> 
> << My meaning was that there may BE no "long term." We'll be 
>  extraordinarily fortunate to stagger through another century. >>
> I understand your suggestion of many threats to human and biotic existence, 
> be a Spike or a Nuke or Global Warming or whatever.  
> 
> We may indeed wind up in the shit can of annihilation, but that has been 
> pimped before by many journalists and Paul Ehrlich in the Population Bomb, 
> the Club or Rome, and the rest, including neonazi survivalists of the 1980s 
> and such.  I would suggest that the human species will survive, and that it 
> may, well, have to deal with problems, that have to do with dealing with 
> "Skynet scenarios."
> 
> I hold with George Dyson's more convivial view that we will be part of what 
> makes SIAI work, but it will take astronomically, more computational power, 
> then even Kurzweil has suggested. For example; look how much computer 
> capability have increased over the last 20 years, and it is having an impact, 
> but nothing that has approached the science fiction of a William Gibson, or a 
> Bruce Sterling.  
> 
> We do suck at environmentally friendly technology for energy and using raw 
> materials. That is largely a part of the marketplace, and how it interweaves 
> with human psychology. Why split water for hydrogen fuel cells, if gasoline 
> is so cheap (circa 2000)?  Why make hydrogen fuel cells, if the old, IC 
> engine is the only thing to drive? You get the idea, its all linked.
> 
> Pessimism as such, seems to be worse for a society, especially a democracy 
> (republic) then optimism. People who are pessimistic settle for less and are 
> less critical of their "leadership." People can also turn to psychotic types 
> of leadership, out of a sense of desperation.
> 
> I think what is needed is honesty, less bullshit from journalists and 
> scientists and promoters of this or that. Or if they are promoters of X or Y, 
> let them state it clearly.
> Peter Jennings is happy to editorialize (American Broadcasting Company) while 
> he reads the news. Verification of what he claims, is often a harder matter 
> to obtain.
> We need honesty to make good choices.
> 
> MItch
> 
John Marlow


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