From: Michael Lorrey (mlorrey@datamann.com)
Date: Thu Apr 19 2001 - 10:12:20 MDT
Robin Hanson wrote:
>
> Michael Lorrey wrote:
> > > >Well, there's nothing a little campaign contribution can't fix...
> > >
> > > Little?! Care to estimate a specific dollar amount?
> >
> >State level legislative action is not that expensive (compared to
> >federal lobbying). Focus money on the party heads and the members of the
> >committees who will be considering such a proposal, somewhere around
> >$500-1000 a head. Then 100-200 bucks to each legislator outside of those
> >mentioned, and a few thou to the parties themselves. This is advice
> >given to me several years ago by the Chief of Staff for a former
> >president of the Washington State Senate, who was a friend of mine. He
> >said that for minor issues like this, where an existing law gets a
> >rather minor amendment to it, its rather easy to slide stuff on through.
> >If you can get high tech industry groups to support such lobbying by a
> >former local pol (i.e. an insider) such things can be achieved rather
> >easily.
>
> So, ... can you add this up? Sounds like <$30,000 - that right?
> What probability of success would you give for that amount?
> And how do you know this is a "minor" law change?
>
> Let's get real. If I gave you $50,000, what penalty would you agree
> to pay me if you failed to get the bill passed? $100,000 perhaps?
What is this? Legislation futures? ;)
$30k sounds about right, tho I'm not sure of the size of the Nevada
legislature houses and committees.
It is a 'minor' law change because it simply expands the definition of
lawful things to bet on. You can be sure that the state gambling
establishment would go for it, and they already have a sizable amount of
paid-for power in the capital. The only problem would be they'd
definitely put a limit on what idea futures are legal. For example, no
futures would be allowed that involved predicting physical harm coming
to anyone, or destruction of something. Nothing about elections or
overthrowing governments (in case a candidate tries to finance their
election with futures). Nothing about passage of new laws or overturning
of existing ones.
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