From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Tue Jan 02 2001 - 09:23:36 MST
Eugene.Leitl@lrz.uni-muenchen.de wrote:
>
> Spike Jones wrote:
>
> > past 23 yrs, not signed up for cryonics yet, estimate chances
> > of living to see singularity ~60%. spike
>
> I don't see how you can attach a meaningful number to the
> probability right now, until you assume a fixed date (and
> that it doesn't kill you, of course).
You don't need a fixed date to generate a probability, just as your
insurance company doesn't need to know the date of your death to set a
premium. A probabilistic range for life expectancies and the Singularity
will combine to give you an estimate. (I'm assuming you're using a
life-expectancy estimate which doesn't take technological progress into
account, so these are independent variables.)
I think my grandparents are going to make it.
-- -- -- -- --
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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