From: GBurch1@aol.com
Date: Sun Dec 31 2000 - 07:32:51 MST
Actually, before I even posted my message I thought "1) I hope Doug Jones
pipes up (pun intended) - maybe he'll give us more details about XCOR's
ultimate plans and 2) saying 'go nanotech!' will probably make me look like a
passive singulatarian." So, some clarifications and responses.
On the latter item, my point was to say that advancing material and
manufacturing science WILL inevitably lower the threshold for building
machines complex, capable and reliable enough to get to orbit. Ultimately,
it will get cheap and easy enough that relatively small groups with modest
financing CAN do it with reasonable business models. Where the two lines
cross is anybody's guess at this point, but it's probably somewhere short of
full-blown Drextech. (For example, consider the debacle with the fuel tank
on the Venture Star - or whatever they're calling it now - relatively
straightforward advances in composite materials technology will make a big
difference.)
Obviously getting the business model and organization right is just as
crucial as getting the engineering right. Doug's forward of Jeff Greason's
post seems right on in that respect and bears repeating:
> My current opinion, after watching and participating in the
> 1990's era of space start-ups, is that there is a very fundamental
> reason why sophisticated investors greatly prefer step-by-step
> financing of companies. If you give a large chunk of money to
> a new company with a new team, you won't achieve the
> desired result. Building a company is a multi-step process, and
> you have to develop the engineering team, the business model,
> the market, etc. as you go.
>
> If a start-up gets too much money too soon, it tries to skip
> engineering steps (to achieve too-short promised schedules),
> and jump right into the biggest markets (with higher costs to
> enter the market). The odds of hitting multiple home runs
> (on technology, targeting the right market, etc.) with the
> first time at bat for a new team, are very low.
On the other hand, as I think about what kind of intermediate steps might
make sense, I wonder whether they can represent meaningful economic way
stations on the path to a truly revolutionary approach to the business of
getting into space. The most obvious intermediate step seems to be
propulsion which, as far as I can tell from what's publicly available from
XCOR's web site, seems to be the approach it is taking. But aren't there
already plenty of rocket engine manufacturers, especially with the Russians
now in the global market? Unless you've developed some significant
improvements in manufacturing and/or operating efficiencies, have you really
gotten any closer to building a truly new avenue to orbit?
In a message dated 12/30/00 3:33:53 PM Central Standard Time,
zebharadon@hotmail.com writes:
> I don't know if you're aware of a company called SpaceDev (SPDV.OB).
Actually, I am; and I think their business model represents one with quite a
bit of promise. Instead of working from "the ground up", SpaceDev is
developing products and services for sale IN SPACE on a seemingly quite
reasonable schedule. In fact, SpaceDev looks like the beginnings of a
business model I've imagined for a long time, which would have as a major
intermediate milestone the establishment of an on-orbit servicing facility,
with a reusable, robotic "tug" as the cornerstone of a private space
infrastructure system. Such a business model could, it seems, be extended
"downward" in steps: Building an aeroshell for delivery of payloads FROM
orbit would be a next step. Making it reusable would be a next step on the
way to building a spaceplane upper stage. The techniques employed in
building the X-38 ACRV would be a sweet model for such a system.
Greg Burch <GBurch1@aol.com>----<gburch@lockeliddell.com>
Attorney ::: Vice President, Extropy Institute ::: Wilderness Guide
http://users.aol.com/gburch1 -or- http://members.aol.com/gburch1
ICQ # 61112550
"We never stop investigating. We are never satisfied that we know
enough to get by. Every question we answer leads on to another
question. This has become the greatest survival trick of our species."
-- Desmond Morris
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