From: J. R. Molloy (jr@shasta.com)
Date: Sun Dec 24 2000 - 15:54:32 MST
From: "Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" <sentience@pobox.com>
> Perhaps you do owe your life to the atom bomb. It is a valid point.
> Nonetheless, calling total war "unthinkable" is not smart. War has not
> been made unthinkable. It has been made more dangerous. It has been
made
> less profitable. It has not been made impossible.
You're right, it isn't smart to call war "unthinkable" because that
subverts what David Brin has called "self-preventing prediction." IOW, if
we predict a horrible apocalyptic total war, then enough people will
probably be prompted to take action to prevent it happening. Just the
same, the new millennium is exceeding my expectations in that, evidently
enough people have considered total war unthinkable so that it hasn't
happened, yet. I think one becomes a little less sane while seriously
considering destroying the human race in a mass extinction event called
Mutually Assured Destruction.
Anyway, the new millennium did not fail to live up to my expectations.
Perhaps my expectations were lower than the average survey respondent.
Stay hungry,
--J. R.
3M TA3
=====================
Useless hypotheses: consciousness, phlogiston, philosophy, vitalism, mind,
free will
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