From: hal@finney.org
Date: Tue Sep 26 2000 - 09:58:41 MDT
Franklin writes:
> Correct me if I am in error, but the attitude of this (Extropians) list is
> that AI to surpass human equivalency is either here (in private and/or
> military budgets) or almost here (within a decade). Minsky OTOH sees AI as
> having a long way to go to get to that level. I'll forward a small sample
> of my exchanges with him.
There is a diversity of opinion, but I think only a small but vocal
minority expects to see AI so fast. I suspect that more people would
agree with estimates roughly in line with Moravec's 2030-2040 time frame,
possibly as early as the 2020s.
Hal
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