From: E. Shaun Russell (e_shaun@uniserve.com)
Date: Tue Aug 22 2000 - 19:35:49 MDT
Damien Broderick wrote:
>>One such prediction is that by 2050 robots will have the "brainpower" of a
>>human mind.
>
>Maybe Hans has shifted his estimate into the future by yet another decade,
>then (it's hard to tell from the brief article). In MIND CHILDREN it was
>2030. In ROBOT, 2040.
To tell you the truth, I found this to be quite interesting as well. As
much as I respect Hans, and as much as I enjoyed the article, I would still
opt to agree more with his _Mind Children_ prediction of 2030. By that
time, Moore's Law should have been shattered to a considerable extent, and
de Garis' work on neural networks should have reached the human brainpower
stage.
Still, the farther off you make "predictions" when talking to the general
public, the less likely you'll be considered a "kook" in public eyes.
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