From: Technotranscendence (neptune@mars.superlink.net)
Date: Sat Aug 19 2000 - 10:59:01 MDT
On Friday, August 18, 2000 10:45 PM Spudboy100@aol.com wrote:
> <<Another reason that war was difficult was that it was an internal
conflict.
> Even libertarians have a hard time seeing what is the right thing to
do
> there.
> Im open to suggestion. spike>>
>
> I cannot imagine this kind of killings going on in the Balkans and not
> drawing the Russians in, as well as the Croats, and the Albanians, which
> basically; because it would have continued in full forced would have
> under-mined Europe elsewhere. Its a domino theory, but one, without some
kind
> of intervention, would have eventually worked itself into a larger
> conflagration.
Funny that this scenario did not happen in the ten years the recent troubles
have been going on for. Since the early 1990s, a lot of pundits in America
and Europe have argued that the Balkan conflicts would spread. In fact,
they did not. Only in 1994-5 did NATO get involved and then in came in on
the side of Bosnian Muslims (where it pretty much allowed them to attack
Bosnia Serbs; also allowed Croatia a free hand against Serbs in its region
with no complaints from Russia). NATO and most outside parties, including
the Russians, did not get deeply involved again until the 1999 Kosovo War.
If the Balkans conflicts were going to spread, they would have spread a lot
sooner. Most of the bloodies fighting is now over and has been over for
years. So the "war will spread if we don't stop it" theory appears
discredited in this case.
(BTW, Albania is no shape to hurt anyone. Albanian arms might support the
KLA, but this is not because the Albanian army or government is involved.
Rather, that nations government and military pretty much have collapsed.
This has created an arms market because soldiers are selling weapons for
food and other goods. Albania, right now, is incapable of doing any
military operations beyond its borders -- that is, very unlikely to get
involved in any Balkan conflict as a participant.)
Add to this, Europeans in general were not getting involved until a major US
effort to get them involved was underway. No grand alliances formed among
pro- or anti-Serb lines. The 1990s were not like the 1900s and the 1910s.
(Part of the difference is, of course, the two empires that existed back
then and were disintegrating -- Ottoman Empire and Austro-Hungary -- are no
longer around. Also, the alliance system of that time is no longer in
existence. Europe in the 1990s and now is not divided by two major
alliances. In fact, I'd bet Europe is likely to be separated now in this
way -- if things stay the same, e.g., the Russians don't suddenly get their
military will and strength back -- than ever before.)
Cheers!
Daniel Ust
http://uweb.superlink.net/neptune/
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