From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Fri Jul 14 2000 - 11:15:18 MDT
Hal Finney wrote:
>} It might not be right, but people can be remarkably blind when it
>} suits them. They might not see the uploads if that would make trouble.
>...
>An important question is whether people will view the advent of these
>uploads as advantageous for them. On the one hand, it gives them access
>to a form of "AI" cheaply. On the other hand, a substantial fraction
>of people (what percent, would you estimate?) will be thrown out of work.
>
>People don't like losing their jobs. That's where much of the opposition
>to immigration comes from. My feeling is that uploads will be seen as
>far more threatening. Rather than stand by and allow themselves to be
>replaced, people will vote restrictions on uploads. That seems like a
>very plausible scenario to me.
Of course at this stage in our ignorance a great many scenarios are plausible.
One key question is how diversified individual portfolios are - if well
diversified, especially out of their personal wage, then most people benefit.
Another key question is how much international politics tolerates losers.
If one nation can allow uploads and make most of their citizens rich,
how hard will other nations try to prevent them from doing this?
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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