From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Fri Jul 14 2000 - 07:01:02 MDT
At 04:48 PM 7/13/2000 -0700, you wrote:
>... Even if Blue Gene has a petaflops or
>10 or even 100, until the abstractions Robin discusses are developed
>a "copyload" is going to run *slow*. That is why I don't think
>there will suddenly be the thousands of copies Robin proposes --
>you have to build real large (initially non-nanotech) computers
>on which to run them and those computers don't come cheap.
>If you still need 2000 sq ft of floor space (initial Blue Gene
>estimates), it sounds like you still have a data center and
>its associated costs (electricty, air conditioning, security,
>etc.). ... you are going to need *significant* hardware
>progress *and* some nifty compilation of the brain's processes
>to run the brain at "real time" rates.
I'm not sure what you think I'm claiming. The claim I most want to
focus attention on is this "Corporate Uploads Take Over Premise":
Hardware and upload compilation will become cheap enough to
profitably run uploads for lower than then-current wages when
human labor is still highly valued (i.e., before strong AI),
and substantially before most individuals can afford to
non-destructively upload themselves.
Given this premise, most first uploads would be corporate projects,
and such uploads would have a first-mover advantage in filling niches.
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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