From: Brian Atkins (brian@posthuman.com)
Date: Fri Jun 09 2000 - 11:34:59 MDT
Brian D Williams wrote:
>
> Message 58:
> From: Max More <max@maxmore.com>
>
> >>
> >>1926-1999
> >>
> >>Large company stocks 10.7% per year
> >>Small company stocks 12.6% per year
> >>Long-term corporate bonds 5.6% per year
> >>U.S treasury bills 3.7% per year
>
> >It's worth adding that the return to U.S. stocks over the last 20
> >years has been significantly higher than since 1926. I don't have
> >the figure handy, but I believe it averages out to about 18% per
> >year.
>
> This is not all stocks, but relevant. (extropians should do no
> worse than the S&P)
>
> S&P averages (source www.vanguard.com)
>
> 1 YEAR 3 YEAR 5 YEAR 10 YEAR
> 17.94% 27.40% 26.76% 18.84
>
> >The really interesting question is what can we expect for the next
> >10-20 years? Warren Buffett has gone on record as saying that we
> >should expect lower than average returns over the coming years. I
> >suspect that he may turn out to be wrong, though it's tough
> >standing up against an investor with such an excellent record
> >(until recently). However, I really don't think he appreciates the
> >transition our economy is going through. The Internet has barely
> >begun to transform business. For a large collection of material on
> >aspects of the New Economy, New Economy Commerce, New Economy
> >Business Models, etc., take a look at those topic at
> >www.manyworlds.com (a business technology site that I'm working on
> >as a consultant with the owner--who is also an extropian).
>
> I agree with Max. I'm a big fan of Mr Buffett's, but I too question
> if he really understands where things are going. I do believe that
> a fundamental change is going on which is why we're trying to
> figure out the best method of investing.
>
> I think it's an interesting question to ponder if there is enough
> money in the hands of the "old Guard" to seriously effect the
> outcome.
>
> The Internet may prove to be the investing worlds equivalent of a
> massive meteor strike. (i.e. extinction event)
>
You might want to check out the "Dazed and confused" series of
articles over on thestreet.com right now. While I definitely believe
that the Internet is going to continue to drive this bull market,
the most money may be made by attention-intensive momentum trading
rather than long term buy and hold exclusively.
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