From: hal@finney.org
Date: Wed May 17 2000 - 10:01:04 MDT
Ian writes, regarding the Waco report from Vector Data:
> IAN: What the VDS report fails to address is
> the multiplicity of flashes in fixed locations,
> which is the linchpin of the "gunshot" diagnosis.
> In one rotation of Mt Carmel by the FLIR aircraft,
> around 20 shots can be counted in one fixed location.
If there were some broken glass at that fixed location, you might well
expect to see multiple flashes as you move around it. This seems to be
what the VDS report describes.
> Bursts of flashes occur in a mechanical rhythm of 7
> to 10 times per second, like the cyclic rate of a
> machinegun.
VDS does not discuss this phenomenon, and I'm not sure why. It is
possible that the pattern is not as rhythmic and mechanical as some
have led us to believe. There could also be artifacts introduced in
the processing, copying and digitizing of the tape.
A certain amount of flicker is to be expected given that the reflective
surface is uneven, like broken glass. It probably wouldn't be at a
mechanical, even rate of repetition. I would like to see a graph which
shows the intensity of a flash over time, quantitatively. This would
help to determine whether the supposedly rhythmic pattern to the flashes
is actually as mechnical as has been suggested.
> They are also linear and pointed toward
> Mt Carmel.
I don't think so. The pixels are very wide, either due to image
degradation or the behavior of the camera. From certain angles, this
makes the pixels appear to be linear and oriented toward the compound.
And for some reason the flashes are mostly seen from those angles.
Are there any instances where there are linear flashes which are in the
vertical direction on screen?
> The VDS report fails to include the rate
> of flashes in fixed locations as a critical flash
> attribute in their attribute comparison of the test-
> FLIR to the 1993 FLIR.
This is true. However we would need to see the test footage shot last
month to see whether this is actually a gunfire attribute. VDS used
this footage to establish their criteria. Maybe real gunfire does not
show such patterns.
> Their claim that none of 1993
> flashes have the necessary shadow is just false.
I don't see how you could pick out shadows of gunshots (whatever that
means) given the crude resolution of the Waco video. VDS also talked
about stereo imagery. Is the FLIR a stereo camera? If so then again
they have more video information available than has been shown to the
public.
> VDS
> also fails to offer any explanation for how there
> could be multiple solar reflections in fixed locations.
On the contrary, this is one of their biggest arguments in favor of
the sun reflection theory. In some cases there are multiple flashes
in fixed locations over a prolonged interval (many minutes) while the
visible light images show reflective material at that exact location.
> However, in my recent report on the Waco FLIR I do
> explore several explanations for how solar reflections
> might duplicate the rapid flashes seen on the FLIR,
> and one just might do it. But counter explanations
> either fail or are far less likely explanations for the
> rapid flashes on the FLIR than that they are gunshots,
> which is further supported by whistle-blower testimony
> that there was a gunfight around the back of Mt Carmel.
>
> See why the rapid flashes are most logically gunshots:
> Part I: http://Ian.Goddard.net/waco/flir02.htm
> Part II: http://Ian.Goddard.net/waco/flir03.htm
I think if you look at the last figure in your flir02 URL above,
you see right there a strong argument for the sun reflection theory.
All the flash observations are clustered together in the left side of
the diagram. It's true, they aren't right on top of each other, but
you'd expect some variation due to uneven ground. This clustering is
hard to explain if it is gunfire.
(I believe you suggested that the building would have blocked view of the
"shooters" from other directions, but it didn't look to me like there
was that much obstruction. The camera was high overhead and looking
down at a steep angle.)
Keep in mind, too, that VDS also attributed a number of flashes to heat
from the hot underside of the tanks reflecting from debris on the ground.
Hal
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