From: Michael S. Lorrey (retroman@turbont.net)
Date: Sun Apr 16 2000 - 07:26:53 MDT
"scerir@libero.it" wrote:
>
> About stocks & prices.
>
> Let me say something, since I was in those 1986-1987 big
> bubbles (deeply involved).
>
> 1. Bullish market is much much longer (this time 8 years, in U.S.)
> than bearish market
> 2. The problem is that bearish stock market often anticipate (and
> produce) some crunch in the real economy
> 3. For the old economy stocks the big crunch, the big backlash
> means that prices are falling more than 30%, less than 50%
> 4. For the Internet (Nasdaq) stocks? Perhaps more than 50%, less
> than 70% ?
> 5. If You fear (fear) that the price of your stock can fall: sell it now
> 6. Surely others have the same fear
> 7. You can buy the same stock later, even the same day, possibly
> at some (much) lower price
> 8. You can sell the same stock later, possibly with some profit, and
> so on
> 9. Do not stay still, idle, looking at monitors showing the rapid fall
> of your stock
Note that the last three recessions have been triggered by rises in oil
prices...while other prices were relatively flat or deflationary. The
current market losses can be tied to the combination of the Microsoft
decision impacting the tech sector, and oil prices impacting blue
chips....looks like Clinton is writing the death sentence for Gore's
candidacy....
Mike Lorrey
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