From: Technotranscendence (neptune@mars.superlink.net)
Date: Thu Mar 30 2000 - 21:51:46 MST
On Monday, March 27, 2000 9:57 AMCurtAdams@aol.com wrote:
> > "Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality"
> > Ronald D. Lee, Lawrence R. Carter
> > Journal of the American Statistical Association,
> > Vol. 87, No. 419. (Sep., 1992), pp. 659-671.
>
> That's 8 years ago. Has anybody checked the accuracy of
> the predictions since? The period of the 90's included
> a big blip in longevity due to AIDS. Early in the
> '90s (or in the late 80s') longevity increases slowed
> notably due to the spread of the disease; I remember at
> least one year with no increase at all. Later, as
> the protease inhibitors have recieved wide use, AIDS
> death rates fell and increases have been above trend.
> So it's a bit of an acid test, but I'd still be curious.
I'm curious too, but is AIDS really causing such a big blip? I've seen
estimates of it killing about as many people in the US as prostate cancer --
which takes about 35K lives per year. Also, we could factoring it out --
for those who aren't in the risk groups...
Daniel Ust
http://mars.superlink.net/neptune/
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