From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Sat Mar 25 2000 - 13:40:54 MST
On Sat, 25 Mar 2000, Michael S. Lorrey wrote:
> This is totally ignoring the possibility that those areas may shift
> into the 'more developed' category by that point in time, and it is
> based entirely on current population trends, ignoring possible future
> shifts.
>
I find all population predictions past ~2020 void of any possible content.
Why? Because biotech will have totally altered the methods and cost basis
of food production (making food much cheaper). Secondly, biotech and
medical devices will be making significant (increments of decades)
extensions in life-expectancy, so the whole "death" part of the
equation comes unglued. Things like the WWW will be driving these
technologies into the less affluent countries.
If nanotech and the singularity arrive by then, clearly all bets are off.
>
> The idea that the most population unfreindly places could systain a 100%
> increase in population is so ludicrous on its face it is obviously based
> on false or icomplete premises.
>
Not really, the problem is with the term "unfriendly". I've visited
Pakistan, India and Thailand, all rather populous countries slated
for big increases. I see absolutely no problem with the possibility
of those countries sustaining 100% increases. Africa, with the
exception of regions around the Sahara, could easily support increases
of that magnitude because it is a very resource rich continent.
As documented by Willy Ley in "Engineer's Dreams" (1954), originally
conceived by Herman Sorgel (in 1935), it is possible to dam the
Congo river and make much more of Africa habitable. The dam
would produce a large "Congo Lake" in central Africa, then
eventually overflow and create a "Chad Sea" where the Sahara
is now located. If the polticial obstacles to this could
be overcome, you could support many, many more people in Africa
than live there today.
He also documents, that you could dam the Strait of Gibralter,
allow some of the Mediterannean to evaporate and expand the coastlines
of all of the countries around that region.
Robert
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