From: sayke (sayke@gmx.net)
Date: Tue Mar 14 2000 - 06:49:11 MST
At 02:19 AM 3/14/00 -0600, sentience@pobox.com wrote:
>I get the impression there's some wonderment as to why I'm raising the issue.
>
>While I understand that the ordinary way of doing things is to have
>arguments on every possible side of an issue, multiple organizations
>with conflicting goals - a situation that some may even associate with
>things like "the free exchange of ideas" - I thought I should take at
>least a shot at doing what a transhuman would do in this situation; get
>a complete consensus by everyone on the correct course of action. I may
>not be a transhuman, but we're all supposedly rational people here, and
>it does seem to me that our choices here are not a matter of decision
>but of perception. There is one unambiguous set of correct actions
>under all three major supergoals, and I want to at least take a shot at
>getting a consensus on that by all major Extropians and organizations.
i understand, and dig, for whatever that's worth.
but, i'm not trying to get a consensus... i'm trying to persuade or be
persuaded. who needs consensi, (is that right?) anyway? aw well. thats
beside the point, i suppose.
>In particular, my argument is that the probability of a Sysop Mind
>working is at least 30%, while the probability of uploading working for
>any given person in the absence of a Sysop, even given the technology,
>is no more than 0.1%. den Otter and sayke have had a lot to say about
>this, about the glory of individuality and the evil of Big Brother and
>their reluctance to give up control, but none of it seems to address the
>basic fact that 30% is more than 0.1%. If you open up box A, you have a
>30% chance of survival. If you open up box B, you have a 0.1% of
>survival. Those are the facts. Everything else is just a side effect,
>a context-dependent heuristic. Forget the instincts. Forget the
>emotions. Forget the social algorithms. Think like an AI. Which is
>more: 0.3 or 0.001? That's it. That's all. Everything else is
>irrelevant. You don't need to look inside those black boxes to see the
>answer. You just need to know the numbers.
nice numbers, but i disagree with them. i think that the probability of
uploading working for me, in the absence of a Sysop, and given the
technology, is somewhere in the ballpark of 70%. and, i think that the
probability of a Sysop Mind working is no more then 0.1%.
i pulled my numbers outa my ass. where didja get yours?
anyway, that might be beside the point, because i don't think a sysop is
doable. your welcome to convince me, though, of course.
sayke, v2.3.05
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