From: hal@finney.org
Date: Sat Jan 15 2000 - 10:40:00 MST
A while back we had some discussion of the Doomsday principle, which
says that a randomly chosen person is likely to be about halfway in
the lifetime of the human race (ordered by birth date), and hence if we
think of ourselves as randomly chosen this applies to us. Given that
the human race is growing exponentially, it follows that we likely to
be near the end of the human race, chronologically.
The same principle applies to other phenomena which have exponential
growth, such as fads. By the time the typical person first hears of them,
the fad is likely to have just about run its course.
In the case of StockGeneration, although there have apparently been
people who invested years ago and made good money, the typical person
who invests will be near the end of the curve (assuming rapid growth).
That means us. Now that we have heard of it, the site will probably
cease operations before long.
Hal
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