Mutations of Ebola

[Don Haut]

In article <155F242976 at ida.ruc.dk>, JOHANN72 at IDA.RUC.DK wrote:

> What are the chances of Ebola mutating and, as a result of that, 
> becoming airborne?

This is a very difficult question because nobody really knows what
mutations would be required for such a change to occur.  I am not a
filovirologist but I am a molecular biologist/virologist (parvoviruses)
and I will go out on a limb and say that the chances for such an event are
not caculable.  I would imagine that it would reqire more than one
mutation (although there are cases where a one base mutation leads to a
change in host range... feline parvovirus to canine parvovirus) and each
indavidual mutation would be, statistically, a random independant event
(sorry for the confusing sentence... it has been a long day).   Finally, I
know of no selective pressure for the virus to mutate in such a direction,
it seems to be very happy like it is.

The bottom line is it would be very difficult to answer your question with
anything other than an "I dont know".

Just my $0.02

Don

Don Haut 
Molecular Microbiology and Immunology
University of Missouri-Columbia
C601591 at showme.missouri.edu
314-882-3171