(Fwd) Emergence

[DANDERSON at PRL.PULMONARY.UBC.CA]

Dr Michael J Carter <bss1mc at surrey.ac.uk> wrote:
Subject:       Emergence
Date:          19 May 1995 09:10:34 +0100

>OK, we are seeing a lot of "new" problems associated (in
>my bised opinion) with viruses.
>Phocine distemper, CDV in lions, Rabbit haemoorhagic disease
>European Brown-hare syndrome, (HIV), and now
>Mexican avian flu,
>Kangaroo blindness and possibly pilchard die off.

>So my question is, what do we make of all of it?
>In particular is it a "new" phenomenon, or have such
>things been happening quietly for years whilst we were all
>blissfully unaware.

>This is the old argument, is it increased occurrence, or
>increased reporting. Sure we can argue about the reasons for 
>emergence (Dr Morse's article in Emergent infections; good solid
>stuff) but how much of this is really "new", ie over the last 10 yers
>or so (sorry, 	I mean "years")?

An additional question.  Is not this phenomena exponential?  For 
example, where we have the development of new stable strains of 
viruses which lend to even newer strains, if the hosts are present 
(as in an abundance of humans and domesticated livestock). 

Is this a challenging form of job security or what?

Dan Anderson