Ebola on nightline

[Mark Van Alstine]

In article <95135.093626JOHND at SJUVM.BITNET>, <JOHND at SJUVM.BITNET> wrote:

> How can they say its unlikely to spread to the U.S? It wouldnt
> surprise me in the least to find that someone is already on a
> plane, or landed here recently with the virus incubating in them...
> I mean it already supposedly spread to another village in
> Zaire, and its probably just a matter of time before it spreads
> elsewhere... Thats just how I see it... I guess you could call
> me a GLASS-HALF-EMPTY type of guy, but thats the way i see it...
> 

John,

How can they say it is unlikely to spread to the U.S.? Well, because it
_is_ unlikely to spread to the U.S.! The transmission vectors are not
terribly robust, typically from either infected srynges, or _direct_
contact with infected body fluids. This combined with the relatively fast
incubation period and clearly incapacitating symptons would, I think,
limit the unobserved spread of the disease. 

About the only way I could think it could possibly be transmitted to the
U.S. would be for an infected person to quickly jump on an international
flight to the U.S. How many Africans can afford the airfare when their
annual income if many times less then the cost of a ticket? The only other
reasonable way, I would guess, for transmitting it would be for an
infected foreign health care worker to jump on a international flight. It
is my assumption, from past happenings, that such _possible_ infected
health care workers (Or foreign nationals?) are evacuated with great care
and usually placed in immediate quarantine... 

Mark