Ebola

[J.P. ROBERTS, MD]

I've been reviewing virtually all of the peer-reviewed
publications about Ebola. After reading The Hot Zone, it's
clear that much of what is known about Ebola virus has
not been published in peer-reviewed press.

Here are some tidbits I haven't seen posted yet in this thread:

1976  Sudan       284 cases      53% mortality
1976  Zaire       318 cases      88% mortality
1979  Sudan       "small"        65% mortality
1989  Reston, VA  monkeys        
1995  Zaire       unknown        unknown
1972,77,78  Zaire    isolated cases
The 1989 Reston strain was similar to the 1976 Sudan strain.
      (source: J.Clin.Path., 43:813).
The 1995 Zaire strain is similar to the 1976 Zaire strain.
      (source: NY Times, 5-12-95)
The Reston strain infected four humans without causing illness.

The infection rate (how many of those who get virus
get the disease) is unknown but is probably around 75%.
Studies of rural central Africans have shown that
7-17% of them carry antibodies to Ebola. This strikes me
as a rather high rate for such an apparently virulent
disease. Nevertheless, it implies that some or even
many cases of Ebola infection are mild or even asymptomatic.

The best summary I have seen of the viral hemorrhagic fevers
is in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Feb 26, 1988.
MMWR should be in any university or municipal library.

Bear in mind that since Ebola's incubation period (the time
from infection until illness) is up to 15 days and there is no
rapid serologic test, it will be 2-3 weeks before we
can know whether the current outbreak is contained.

--- John P. Roberts, MD (roberts at uthscsa.edu)
    San Antonio, Texas
    "It bothers people when you are lucid and ironic." - A. Camus