Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2018 12:47:50 -0500
To: Melvin Carvalho <melvincarvalho@gmail.com>
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Cc: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Total fees have almost crossed the block reward
Precedence: list

> This lead me to ponder whether the intuitive metric of satoshi/byte is, i=
n fact, game
>theory optimal.=C2=A0 Possibly over the short term it is, but over a longe=
r period, those
> wishing to increase the longevity of proof of work in general might wish =
to consider
> more progressive fee approaches.=C2=A0

The constraining factor for blocks is the max-block weight. So miners are a=
lready optimizing for the right thing (creating a block that gives the most=
 immediate reward). If miners want to start a cartel-like behavior of charg=
ing more for more value-transfer it would be incredibly harmful and even li=
kely promote centralization (the cartel would likely not look kindly on any=
 miner who doesn't follow their rules, and perhaps start orphaning their bl=
ocks).

Now I guess in theory you could add consensus rules that apply restrictions=
 on the amount of "value transfer" in a block, such that miners are motivat=
ed to charge more for high-value transactions. However there's going to be =
almost 0 appetite from anyone to want to do anything like this, and the amo=
unt of unintended and harmful side effects would be profound.  (Personally,=
 I'd lose any interest in bitcoin if such a change was ever instated)


=E2=80=8B-Ryan

=E2=80=8B

-------- Original Message --------
 On February 12, 2018 12:23 PM, Melvin Carvalho via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-de=
v@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:

>
>
>On 21 December 2017 at 22:30, Melvin Carvalho <melvincarvalho@gmail.com> w=
rote:
>>I asked adam back at hcpp how the block chain would be secured in the lon=
g term, once the reward goes away.=C2=A0 The base idea has always been that=
 fees would replace the block reward.
>>At that time fees were approximately 10% of the block reward, but have no=
w reached 45%, with 50% potentially being crossed soon
>>
>>https://fork.lol/reward/feepct
>>
>>While this bodes well for the long term security of the coin, I think the=
re is some legitimate concern that the fee per tx is prohibitive for some u=
se cases, at this point in the adoption curve.
>>
>>Observations of segwit adoption show around 10% at this point
>>
>>http://segwit.party/charts/
>>
>>Watching the mempool shows that the congestion is at a peak, though it's =
quite possible this will come down over the long weekend.=C2=A0 I wonder if=
 this is of concern to some.
>>
>>https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/more/#24h
>>
>>I thought these data points may be of interest and are mainly FYI.=C2=
=A0 Though if further discussion is deemed appropriate, it would be interes=
ting to hear thoughts.
>>
>Just following up on this, for no other reason than I've had my eyes glued=
 to these stats the last few weeks.=C2=A0 I'll share a few more stats links=
.
>Mempool has come down significantly, as have fees.=C2=A0 Tho, of course, t=
his could spike any time.=C2=A0=20
>
>https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/
>Typically fees are :
>
>=C2=A0$2.06 on tx $543 (median) # 0.38%
>=C2=A0$3.47 on tx $75,000 (mean) # 0.005%
>Aside: An observation on this.=C2=A0 High value transactors seems to be ge=
tting a much better deal, than the mean.=C2=A0 This lead me to ponder wheth=
er the intuitive metric of satoshi/byte is, in fact, game theory optimal.=
=C2=A0 Possibly over the short term it is, but over a longer period, those =
wishing to increase the longevity of proof of work in general might wish to=
 consider more progressive fee approaches.=C2=A0 Naively, it might be possi=
ble to imagine some kind of gaussian distribution that picks tx according t=
o a blended combination of sats/byte and %transacted.=C2=A0 Perhaps somethi=
ng for miners and fee estimation algorithms to develop over time.
>Segwit adoption has increased, and anecdotal evidence shows that trend to =
continue.=C2=A0 The release of 0.16 will I think also have a positive effec=
t.
>Finally, I came across this wonderful site that shows lightning network ad=
option on mainnet
>
>http://shabang.io/
>LN is increasing well.=C2=A0 Some blocks are not far off 1% lightning fund=
ing, which I think bodes well.=C2=A0 I'll go out on a limb and predict that=
 over 1% of btc tx will be lightning based by year end.
>Since such posts are not strictly development, I'll keep them to a minimum=
.=C2=A0 However, I hope these stats provide useful data points for project =
evolution.
>
>