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Date: Mon, 11 May 2015 13:29:02 -0400
Message-ID: <CABsx9T1VgxEJWxrYTs+2hXGnGrSLGJ6mVcAexjXLvK7Vu+e3EA@mail.gmail.com>
From: Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail.com>
To: insecurity@national.shitposting.agency
Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=089e01494248c3e8a50515d1b6ab
Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net>
Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Long-term mining incentives
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I think long-term the chain will not be secured purely by proof-of-work. I
think when the Bitcoin network was tiny running solely on people's home
computers proof-of-work was the right way to secure the chain, and the only
fair way to both secure the chain and distribute the coins.

See https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/630d4a6c24ac6144482a  for some
half-baked thoughts along those lines. I don't think proof-of-work is the
last word in distributed consensus (I also don't think any alternatives are
anywhere near ready to deploy, but they might be in ten years).

I also think it is premature to worry about what will happen in twenty or
thirty years when the block subsidy is insignificant. A lot will happen in
the next twenty years. I could spin a vision of what will secure the chain
in twenty years, but I'd put a low probability on that vision actually
turning out to be correct.

That is why I keep saying Bitcoin is an experiment. But I also believe that
the incentives are correct, and there are a lot of very motivated, smart,
hard-working people who will make it work. When you're talking about trying
to predict what will happen decades from now, I think that is the best you
can (honestly) do.

-- 
--
Gavin Andresen

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_extra">I think long-term the chain wil=
l not be secured purely by proof-of-work. I think when the Bitcoin network =
was tiny running solely on people&#39;s home computers proof-of-work was th=
e right way to secure the chain, and the only fair way to both secure the c=
hain and distribute the coins.</div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><d=
iv class=3D"gmail_extra">See=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://gist.github.com/gavina=
ndresen/630d4a6c24ac6144482a">https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/630d4a6=
c24ac6144482a</a> =C2=A0for some half-baked thoughts along those lines. I d=
on&#39;t think proof-of-work is the last word in distributed consensus (I a=
lso don&#39;t think any alternatives are anywhere near ready to deploy, but=
 they might be in ten years).</div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><di=
v class=3D"gmail_extra">I also think it is premature to worry about what wi=
ll happen in twenty or thirty years when the block subsidy is insignificant=
. A lot will happen in the next twenty years. I could spin a vision of what=
 will secure the chain in twenty years, but I&#39;d put a low probability o=
n that vision actually turning out to be correct.<br></div><div class=3D"gm=
ail_extra"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra">That is why I keep saying B=
itcoin is an experiment. But I also believe that the incentives are correct=
, and there are a lot of very motivated, smart, hard-working people who wil=
l make it work. When you&#39;re talking about trying to predict what will h=
appen decades from now, I think that is the best you can (honestly) do.<br =
clear=3D"all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div class=3D"gmail_signature">--<br>Ga=
vin Andresen<br></div>
</div></div>

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