Received-SPF: pass (sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com: domain of gmail.com
	designates 209.85.213.47 as permitted sender)
	client-ip=209.85.213.47; envelope-from=gavinandresen@gmail.com;
	helo=mail-yh0-f47.google.com; 
MIME-Version: 1.0
In-Reply-To: <CAPWm=eXxs=AfFhaT2EeGFsR+2r96WcaOeWL_Z59-6LixH+=4AQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPWm=eXxs=AfFhaT2EeGFsR+2r96WcaOeWL_Z59-6LixH+=4AQ@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 09:59:11 -0400
Message-ID: <CABsx9T35NdEkFmdVDX19gOO1p0h1M_ZDK1iXxTFNLHE9dtC3hQ@mail.gmail.com>
From: Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail.com>
To: Alex Morcos <morcos@gmail.com>
Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=047d7b603c5845699405067c0d28
Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net>
Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Reworking the policy estimation code (fee
	estimates)
Precedence: list

--047d7b603c5845699405067c0d28
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1

I think Alex's approach is better; I don't think we can know how much
better until we have a functioning fee market.

We don't have a functioning fee market now, because fees are hard-coded. So
we get "pay the hard-coded fee and you'll get confirmed in one or two or
three blocks, depending on which miners mine the next three blocks and what
time of day it is."

git HEAD code says you need a fee of 10,0000 satoshis/kb to be pretty sure
you'll get confirmed in the next block. That looks about right with Alex's
real-world data (if we take "90% chance" as 'pretty sure you'll get
confirmed'):

Fee rate 100000 Avg blocks to confirm 1.09 NumBlocks:% confirmed 1: 0.901
2: 1.0   3: 1.0

My only concern with Alex's code is that it takes much longer to get
'primed' -- Alex, if I started with no data about fees, how long would it
take to be able to get enough data for a reasonable estimate of "what is
the least I can pay and still be 90% sure I get confirmed in 20 blocks" ?
Hours? Days? Weeks?

-- 
--
Gavin Andresen

--047d7b603c5845699405067c0d28
Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_extra">I think Alex&#39;s approach is =
better; I don&#39;t think we can know how much better until we have a funct=
ioning fee market.</div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><div class=3D"=
gmail_extra">We don&#39;t have a functioning fee market now, because fees a=
re hard-coded. So we get &quot;pay the hard-coded fee and you&#39;ll get co=
nfirmed in one or two or three blocks, depending on which miners mine the n=
ext three blocks and what time of day it is.&quot;</div><div class=3D"gmail=
_extra"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra">git HEAD code says you need a =
fee of 10,0000 satoshis/kb to be pretty sure you&#39;ll get confirmed in th=
e next block. That looks about right with Alex&#39;s real-world data (if we=
 take &quot;90% chance&quot; as &#39;pretty sure you&#39;ll get confirmed&#=
39;):</div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra">=
<div style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px"><font face=3D"co=
urier new, monospace">Fee rate 100000 Avg blocks to confirm 1.09 NumBlocks:=
% confirmed 1: 0.901 2: 1.0 =A0 3: 1.0</font></div><div><font face=3D"couri=
er new, monospace"><br></font></div></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra">My onl=
y concern with Alex&#39;s code is that it takes much longer to get &#39;pri=
med&#39; -- Alex, if I started with no data about fees, how long would it t=
ake to be able to get enough data for a reasonable estimate of &quot;what i=
s the least I can pay and still be 90% sure I get confirmed in 20 blocks&qu=
ot; ? Hours? Days? Weeks?<br clear=3D"all"><div><br></div>-- <br>--<br>Gavi=
n Andresen<br>
</div></div>

--047d7b603c5845699405067c0d28--