Message-ID: <528371BF.9030100@ceptacle.com>
Date: Wed, 13 Nov 2013 13:34:07 +0100
From: Michael Gronager <gronager@ceptacle.com>
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To: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net>
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Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Even simpler minimum fee calculation
 formula: f > bounty*fork_rate/average_blocksize
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Just a quick comment on the actual fees (checked at blockchain.info) the
average fee over the last 90 days is actually ~0.0003BTC/txn - so not
too far behind the theoretical minimum of 0.00037BTC/txn.

I suppose, though, that it has more to do with old clients and fee
settings (0.0005) than network wisdom ;)

On 13/11/13, 12:52 , Michael Gronager wrote:
> Last week I posted a writeup: "On the optimal block size and why
> transaction fees are 8 times too low (or transactions 8 times too big)".
> 
> Peter Todd made some nice additions to it including different pool sizes
> into the numbers.
> 
> However, it occurred to me that things can in fact be calculated even
> simpler: The measured fork rate will mean out all the different pool
> sizes and network latencies and will as such provide a simple number we
> can use to estimate the minimum fee. Key assumption is that the latency
> will depend on block size (# txns) and the fork rate will depend on latency.
> 
> Using the formulas from last week:
> 
> P_fork = t_propagate/t_blocks
> 
> and:
> 
> t_propagate = t_0 + alpha*S ~= alpha*S
> 
> We get a measure for alpha as a function of the average fork rate and
> average block size:
> 
> alpha = P_fork*t_block/S
> 
> Further, take the formula for the minimum fee:
> 
> f > alpha*E_bounty/t_block
> 
> And insert the formula for alpha:
> 
> f > P_fork*E_bounty/S_average
> 
> Luckily the fork frequency and the average block size are easily
> measurable. blockchain.info keeps historical graphs of number of
> orphaned blocks pr day - average over the last year is 1.5. Average
> number of blocks per day over the last year is 169, which yields a
> P_fork of ~1/113. Average block size in the same time is 134kBytes,
> which yields a minimum fee:
> 
> f > 0.00165XBT/kb or 0.00037XBT/txn
> 
> So the 0.0001 is only 4 times too small. Further, let us look at the
> trend over the last 12 months. Pieter Wuille claimed that there has been
> several improvements over the last half year that would bring down the
> latency, there has also been speculations regarding direct connections
> between the major pools etc - lets see if this is indeed true.
> 
> If you look instead of 360 days, only at the last 90 days the average
> block size has been 131kBytes, and the fork rate has been ~1/118, which
> results in a minimum fee of:
> 
> f > 0.00162XBT/kb or 0.00037XBT/txn
> 
> So a small improvement but not statistically important...
> 
> Last question, recalling that optimal revenue block size is a function
> of the txn-fee (from the last writeup) - lets see what fee it takes to
> support a block size of 131kBytes:
> 
> S = 1/2 * (t_block/alpha - E_bounty/f)
> 
> S = 1/2 * (S/P_fork - E_bounty/f)
> 
> f = E_bounty/[(1/P_fork-2)*S] = 0.00165XBT/kB
> 
> So a 4 times increase is still sufficient for the current load.
> 
> Anyway - the all important number is alpha, the network latency which we
> expect to be dependent of various things such as interconnectivity,
> bandwidths, software quality etc, where mainly the latter is within our
> hands to bring down the fee. And you can actually setup the standard
> client to choose a better fee, as all the parameters in the formula are
> easily measured!
> 
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