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From: "Ferdinando M. Ametrano" <ferdinando.ametrano@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 21:17:58 +0100
Message-ID: <CADfmNEk40DTHDB8if_y_2i_Omoszd_BgcSxf-oS+ZcQB0tZZhg@mail.gmail.com>
To: Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail.com>
Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary=001a11c240664e69b70506815a0f
Cc: MANDELLI FRANCESCO <francesco.mandelli@esternibisp.com>,
	MAZZOCCHI PAOLO <paolo.mazzocchi@esternibisp.com>,
	Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net>
Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] death by halving
Precedence: list

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On Oct 25, 2014 9:19 PM, "Gavin Andresen" <gavinandresen@gmail.com> wrote:
> We had a halving, and it was a non-event.
> Is there some reason to believe next time will be different?

In november 2008 bitcoin was a much younger ecosystem, with less liquidity
and trading, smaller market cap, and the halving happened during a quite
stable positive price trend.

In the next months competition might easily drive down mining margins, and
the reward halving might generate unexpected disruption in mining
operations.

Moreover, halving is not strictly necessary to respect the spirit of
Nakamoto's monetary rule and its 21M limit. At the beginning of the 3rd
reward era (block 420000, in 2017) a new reward function could become
effective R(b)=3Dk*2^(-h*b/210000) where b is the block number and R(b) is
the reward. The parameters h and k can be calibrated so that R(419999)=3D25
and sum_b{R}=3D21M


=E2=80=8BIf the increased issuance speed in the third era is considered
problematic, then each era could have its own R_e(b)=3Dk_e*2^(-h_e*b/210000=
)
fitted to the amount of coins to be issued in that era according to the
current supply rule, e.g. fitting k_e and h_e to R(419999)=3D25 and
sum_{b}_e=3D2,625,000.

Would such a BIP have any chance to be considered? Am I missing something?

Nando

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><p dir=3D"ltr">On Oct 25, 2014 9:19 PM, &quot;Gavin Andres=
en&quot; &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:gavinandresen@gmail.com" target=3D"_blank">g=
avinandresen@gmail.com</a>&gt; wrote:<br>&gt; We had a halving, and it was =
a non-event.<br>&gt; Is there some reason to believe next time will be diff=
erent?<br>
<br>
</p><p>In november 2008 bitcoin was a much younger ecosystem, with less liq=
uidity and trading, smaller market cap, and the halving happened during a q=
uite stable positive price trend.</p><p>In the next months competition migh=
t easily drive down mining margins, and the reward halving might generate u=
nexpected disruption in mining operations.</p><p>Moreover, halving is not s=
trictly necessary to respect the spirit of Nakamoto&#39;s monetary rule and=
 its 21M limit. At the beginning of the 3rd reward era (block=C2=A0420000, =
in 2017) a new reward function could become effective R(b)=3Dk*2^(-h*b/2100=
00) where b is the block number and R(b) is the reward. The parameters h an=
d k can be calibrated so that R(419999)=3D25 and sum_b{R}=3D21M</p><p><img =
src=3D"cid:ii_i1topbkb0_149585d3d244015a" width=3D"523" height=3D"263"><br>=
</p><p>=E2=80=8BIf the increased issuance speed in the third era is conside=
red problematic, then each era could have its own R_e(b)=3Dk_e*2^(-h_e*b/21=
0000) fitted to the amount of coins to be issued in that era according to t=
he current supply rule, e.g. fitting k_e and h_e to R(419999)=3D25 and sum_=
{b}_e=3D2,625,000.<br></p><p>Would such a BIP have any chance to be conside=
red? Am I missing something?</p><p>Nando</p>
</div>

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