Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2022 15:36:08 +1000
From: Anthony Towns <aj@erisian.com.au>
To: Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Message-ID: <Y3MlSE7AWkBgiCyr@erisian.com.au>
References: <Y2I3w8O5X55sD/3C@petertodd.org> <Y2qc7Ubc5xtJhxGw@petertodd.org>
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Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Announcement: Full-RBF Miner Bounty
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On Tue, Nov 08, 2022 at 01:16:13PM -0500, Peter Todd via bitcoin-dev wrote:
> FYI I've gotten a few hundred dollars worth of donations to this effort, and
> have raised the reward to about 0.02 BTC, or $400 USD at current prices.

Seems like this has been mostly claimed (0.014btc / $235, 9238sat/vb):

https://mempool.space/tx/397dcbe4e95ec40616e3dfc4ff8ffa158d2e72020b7d11fc2be29d934d69138c

The block it was claimed in seems to have been about an hour after the
default mempool filled up:

https://twitter.com/murchandamus/status/1592274621977477120

That block actually seems to have included two
alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org txs, the other paying $7.88
(309sat/vb):

https://mempool.space/tx/ba9670109a6551458d5e1e23600c7bf2dc094894abdf59fe7aa020ccfead07cf

Timeline (utc) to me looks like:

 - 13:12 - block 763148 is mined: last one that had a min fee < 1.5sat/vb
 - 13:33 - f503868c64d454c472859b793f3ee7cdc8f519c64f8b1748d8040cd8ce6dc6e1
           is announced and propogates widely (1.2sat/vb)
 - 18:42 - 746daab9bcc331be313818658b4a502bb4f3370a691fd90015fabcd7759e0944
           is announced and propogates widely (1.2sat/vb)
 - 21:52 - ba967010 tx is announced and propogates widely, since
           conflicting tx 746daab9 has been removed from default
	   mempools
 - 21:53 - murch tweets about default mempool filling up
 - 22:03 - 397dcbe4 tx is announced and propogates widely, since
           conflicting tx f503868 has already been removed from default
	   mempools
 - 22:35 - block 763189 is mined
 - 22:39 - block 763190 is mined
 - 23:11 - block 763191 is mined
 - 23:17 - block 763192 is mined including 397dcbe4

miningpool.observer reports both 397dcbe4 and ba967010 as missing in the
first three blocks, and gives similar mempool ages for those txs to what
my logs report:

  https://miningpool.observer/template-and-block/0000000000000000000436aba59d8430061e0e50592215f7f263bfb1073ccac7
  https://miningpool.observer/template-and-block/00000000000000000005600404792bacfd8a164d2fe9843766afb2bfbd937309
  https://miningpool.observer/template-and-block/00000000000000000004a3073f58c9eae40f251ea7aeaeac870daeac4b238fd1

That presumably means those pools (AntPool twice and "unknown") are
running with large mempools that didn't kept the earlier 1.2sat/vb txs.

The txs were mined by Foundry:

  https://miningpool.observer/template-and-block/00000000000000000001382a226aedac822de80309cca2bf1253b35d4f8144f5

This seems to be pretty good evidence that we currently don't have any
significant hashrate mining with fullrbf policies (<0.5% if there was a
high fee replacement available prior to every block having been mined),
despite the bounty having been collected.

Cheers,
aj