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From: Eric Voskuil <eric@voskuil.org>
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Date: Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:54:19 -0700
Message-Id: <F713CAAC-1997-4645-A166-57358E520594@voskuil.org>
References: <PS2P216MB0179EC99BDE0E3388F2627F89DF30@PS2P216MB0179.KORP216.PROD.OUTLOOK.COM>
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To: LORD HIS EXCELLENCY JAMES HRMH <willtech@live.com.au>,
 Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Block solving slowdown question/poll
Precedence: list


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Mining is a lottery.

e

> On Mar 22, 2020, at 07:10, LORD HIS EXCELLENCY JAMES HRMH via bitcoin-dev <=
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>=20
> =EF=BB=BF
> There seems to be the real possibility that miners are simply trying to op=
timise mining profit by limiting the average hash rate during the retargetin=
g, saving some electricity but poorly considering the overall situation wher=
e they give opportunity to other miners probably raising the hashrate for th=
e next period. It is far more profitable for the ecosystem considering the w=
hole to hold a lottery for minig as has been discussed elsewhere some time a=
go.
>=20
> Regards,
> LORD HIS EXCELLENCY JAMES HRMH
>=20
>=20
> From: bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev-bounces@lists.linuxfoundation.org> on behal=
f of David A. Harding via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org=
>
> Sent: Sunday, 22 March 2020 6:54 PM
> To: Dave Scotese <dscotese@litmocracy.com>; Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <b=
itcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
> Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Block solving slowdown question/poll
> =20
> On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 11:40:24AM -0700, Dave Scotese via bitcoin-dev wro=
te:
> > [Imagine] we also see mining power dropping off at a rate that
> > suggests the few days [until retarget] might become a few weeks, and
> > then, possibly, a few months or even the unthinkable, a few eons.  I'm
> > curious to know if anyone has ideas on how this might be handled
>=20
> There are only two practical solutions I'm aware of:
>=20
> 1. Do nothing
> 2. Hard fork a difficulty reduction
>=20
> If bitcoins retain even a small fraction of their value compared to the
> previous retarget period and if most mining equipment is still available
> for operation, then doing nothing is probably the best choice---as block
> space becomes scarcer, transaction feerates will increase and miners
> will be incentivized to increase their block production rate.
>=20
> If the bitcoin price has plummeted more than, say, 99% in two weeks
> with no hope of short-term recovery or if a large fraction of mining
> equipment has become unusable (again, say, 99% in two weeks with no
> hope of short-term recovery), then it's probably worth Bitcoin users
> discussing a hard fork to reduce difficulty to a currently sustainable
> level.
>=20
> -Dave
> _______________________________________________
> bitcoin-dev mailing list
> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev

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<html><head><meta http-equiv=3D"content-type" content=3D"text/html; charset=3D=
utf-8"></head><body dir=3D"auto"><div dir=3D"ltr">Mining is a lottery.</div>=
<div dir=3D"ltr"><br></div><div dir=3D"ltr">e</div><div dir=3D"ltr"><br><blo=
ckquote type=3D"cite">On Mar 22, 2020, at 07:10, LORD HIS EXCELLENCY JAMES H=
RMH via bitcoin-dev &lt;bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org&gt; wrote:<br>=
<br></blockquote></div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div dir=3D"ltr">=EF=BB=BF

<meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1=
">


<div style=3D"font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt; colo=
r:rgb(0,0,0)">
There seems to be the real possibility that miners are simply trying to opti=
mise mining profit by limiting the average hash rate during the retargeting,=
 saving some electricity but poorly considering the overall situation where t=
hey give opportunity to other
 miners probably raising the hashrate for the next period. It is far more pr=
ofitable for the ecosystem considering the whole to hold a lottery for minig=
 as has been discussed elsewhere some time ago.<br>
</div>
<div style=3D"font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt; colo=
r:rgb(0,0,0)">
<br>
</div>
<div style=3D"font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt; colo=
r:rgb(0,0,0)">
<div style=3D"font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt; colo=
r:rgb(0,0,0)">
Regards,</div>
<div style=3D"font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt; colo=
r:rgb(0,0,0)">
LORD HIS EXCELLENCY JAMES HRMH </div>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>
<div id=3D"Signature">
<div>
<div id=3D"appendonsend"></div>
<div style=3D"font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt; colo=
r:rgb(0,0,0)">
<br>
</div>
<hr tabindex=3D"-1" style=3D"display:inline-block; width:98%">
<div id=3D"divRplyFwdMsg" dir=3D"ltr"><font style=3D"font-size:11pt" face=3D=
"Calibri, sans-serif" color=3D"#000000"><b>From:</b> bitcoin-dev &lt;bitcoin=
-dev-bounces@lists.linuxfoundation.org&gt; on behalf of David A. Harding via=
 bitcoin-dev &lt;bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org&gt;<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 22 March 2020 6:54 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Dave Scotese &lt;dscotese@litmocracy.com&gt;; Bitcoin Protocol Di=
scussion &lt;bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org&gt;<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [bitcoin-dev] Block solving slowdown question/poll</font=
>
<div>&nbsp;</div>
</div>
<div class=3D"BodyFragment"><font size=3D"2"><span style=3D"font-size:11pt">=

<div class=3D"PlainText">On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 11:40:24AM -0700, Dave Scot=
ese via bitcoin-dev wrote:<br>
&gt; [Imagine] we also see mining power dropping off at a rate that<br>
&gt; suggests the few days [until retarget] might become a few weeks, and<br=
>
&gt; then, possibly, a few months or even the unthinkable, a few eons.&nbsp;=
 I'm<br>
&gt; curious to know if anyone has ideas on how this might be handled<br>
<br>
There are only two practical solutions I'm aware of:<br>
<br>
1. Do nothing<br>
2. Hard fork a difficulty reduction<br>
<br>
If bitcoins retain even a small fraction of their value compared to the<br>
previous retarget period and if most mining equipment is still available<br>=

for operation, then doing nothing is probably the best choice---as block<br>=

space becomes scarcer, transaction feerates will increase and miners<br>
will be incentivized to increase their block production rate.<br>
<br>
If the bitcoin price has plummeted more than, say, 99% in two weeks<br>
with no hope of short-term recovery or if a large fraction of mining<br>
equipment has become unusable (again, say, 99% in two weeks with no<br>
hope of short-term recovery), then it's probably worth Bitcoin users<br>
discussing a hard fork to reduce difficulty to a currently sustainable<br>
level.<br>
<br>
-Dave<br>
</div>
</span></font></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>


<span>_______________________________________________</span><br><span>bitcoi=
n-dev mailing list</span><br><span>bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</sp=
an><br><span>https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev<=
/span><br></div></blockquote></body></html>=

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