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Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2012 13:44:11 -0400
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From: Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail.com>
To: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1
Subject: [Bitcoin-development] April 1 BIP16 switchover time is definite
Precedence: list

Support for BIP16 has been approximately 70% of hashing power for the
last two days, and is 54% over the last week, so we're going to
announce that the BIP16 switchover time of April 1 is final and
strongly encourage any pools/miners that haven't yet upgraded their
software to do so in the next two weeks or risk hashing on a minority
chain.

I'll be checking to make sure support doesn't slip before April 1.

I've learned a lot, and have started writing up a document that
suggests how we can make the next upgrade process less painful for
everybody; when I've got a reasonable draft I'll start a discussion
about it here.

-- 
--
Gavin Andresen


PS: If you're curious, here is what support over the last 30 days
looks like, beginning with the last 24 hours (144 blocks) and going
backwards for each 24 hour period:

Found 103 matches in 144 blocks (71.5 percent)
Found 99 matches in 144 blocks (68.8 percent)
Found 87 matches in 144 blocks (60.4 percent)
Found 70 matches in 144 blocks (48.6 percent)
Found 73 matches in 144 blocks (50.7 percent)
Found 57 matches in 144 blocks (39.6 percent)
Found 52 matches in 144 blocks (36.1 percent)
Found 40 matches in 144 blocks (27.8 percent)
Found 40 matches in 144 blocks (27.8 percent)
Found 46 matches in 144 blocks (31.9 percent)
Found 41 matches in 144 blocks (28.5 percent)
Found 45 matches in 144 blocks (31.2 percent)
Found 57 matches in 144 blocks (39.6 percent)
Found 69 matches in 144 blocks (47.9 percent)
Found 51 matches in 144 blocks (35.4 percent)
Found 53 matches in 144 blocks (36.8 percent)
Found 65 matches in 144 blocks (45.1 percent)
Found 43 matches in 144 blocks (29.9 percent)
Found 48 matches in 144 blocks (33.3 percent)
Found 51 matches in 144 blocks (35.4 percent)
Found 46 matches in 144 blocks (31.9 percent)
Found 57 matches in 144 blocks (39.6 percent)
Found 61 matches in 144 blocks (42.4 percent)
Found 54 matches in 144 blocks (37.5 percent)
Found 53 matches in 144 blocks (36.8 percent)
Found 44 matches in 144 blocks (30.6 percent)
Found 52 matches in 144 blocks (36.1 percent)
Found 51 matches in 144 blocks (35.4 percent)
Found 53 matches in 144 blocks (36.8 percent)

Command used to get that data:
  for i in {1..30}; do ./search_coinbases.py --n=$(($i * 144))
--start=$(( ($i -1) * 144)); done

search_coinbases is one of my bitcointools:
  https://github.com/gavinandresen/bitcointools

Pretty graph of support over the last 100 blocks here:
  github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/