From 7656c7ccb254ff22136c5ff4b731327ccfd1eb70 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Tom Harding <tomh@thinlink.com>
Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015 16:45:22 -0700
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] "A Transaction Fee Market Exists Without a Block
 Size Limit"--new research paper suggests

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+From: Tom Harding <tomh@thinlink.com>
+Message-ID: <55C2A012.7080908@thinlink.com>
+Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015 16:45:22 -0700
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+Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] "A Transaction Fee Market Exists Without a Block
+ Size Limit"--new research paper suggests
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+
+On 8/5/2015 3:44 PM, Dave Hudson via bitcoin-dev wrote:
+> I do suspect that if we were to model this more accurately we might be 
+> able to infer the "typical" propagation characteristics by measuring 
+> the deviation from the expected distribution. 
+
+The paper models propagation using a single time value that is a 
+function of block size.  Modeling the propagation distribution (which is 
+totally separate from the poisson model of block production) would add a 
+lot of complexity and my guess is the outcome would be little changed.
+
+
+>> On 5 Aug 2015, at 15:15, Peter R <peter_r@gmx.com> wrote:
+>> Although a miner may not orphan his own block, by building on his own block he may now orphan two blocks in a row.  At some point, his solution or solutions must be communicated to his peers.
+
+Why complicate the analysis by assuming that a miner who finds two 
+blocks sequentially does not publish the first, or that other miners 
+would orphan miner's first block unless both were very quick?  In 
+general you don't consider anything beyond 1 block in the future, which 
+seems fine.
+
+
+>>> I suspect this may well change some of the conclusions as larger block makers will definitely be able to create larger blocks than their smaller counterparts.
+>> It will be interesting to see.  I suspect that the main result that "a healthy fee market exists" will still hold (assuming of course that a single miner with >50% of the hash power isn't acting maliciously).  Whether miners with larger value of h/H have a profit advantage, I'm not sure (but that was outside the scope of the paper anyways).
+
+Correcting for non-orphaning of one's own blocks could be as simple as 
+adding a factor (1 - h/H) to equation 4, which it appears would leave 
+hashpower as an independent variable in the results.  But at worst, the 
+discussion can be considered to apply directly only to low-hashpower 
+miners right now.
+
+Overall, the paper does not predict big changes to per/kb fees or spam 
+costs for the kinds of block sizes being discussed for the immediate 
+future (8MB).  But it does conclude that these fees will rise, not fall, 
+with bigger blocks.
+
+Also it is welcome that this paper actually mentions the bitcoin 
+exchange rate as a factor in relation to block size (it points out that 
+a spam attack is much more expensive in fiat terms today than it was 
+years ago).
+
+
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